I wrote an article on Jan 21st, 2005, about India's Goals for 2020. The key points in that article were about the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and Labor distribution across the sectors (Agriculture, Industry, and Services).
In 2004 (India's) GDP, Labour distribution for Agriculture was around 60% (282 Million / 28.2 Cr people), and in the last 20 years, we were able to reduce that to only 42%, approximately 213 Million (21.3 Cr) People. At the same time, China decreased that from 50% (389 Million in 2004) to 27% (219 Million people in 2021).
Another surprising factor is even though we overtook the Chinese in terms of population, the Govt stats show that our workforce is only 507 million (50.7 Cr) people, while the expected workforce is around 800 million (80 Cr) people.
Our workforce is expected to be around 800-900 million in the next 5-10 years. The worrying question is what will be the distribution of the labor force in 2030 (assuming 800 million people) and what percentage of that workforce will be in Agriculture. 40% of 800 Million will be around 320 Million, or 35% labor force (Agriculture) will be approximately 280 Million people. The Entire US population is approximately 340 Million.
Now let us look at the table to compare India and China's progress in the last 20 years. The focus is on the GDP distribution to the economy and labor distribution in each sector (Agriculture, Industry & Services).
213 Million (21.3 Cr) people in the Agriculture sector. Now Let us understand the problem.
The above chart shows our progress from 2004 to 2023, almost two decades, and we reduced our Labor force in Agriculture from 60% to 42%. Still, That's quite a large population in the workforce. 42% of 507 Million is 213 million workers. Please listen to the India Today Conclave 2023 discussion on 4D Democracy, Demography, Digitisation & De-Globalization, by Amitabh Kant (X-CEO Niti Aayog) and Palanivel Thiagarajan (FM, Tamil Nadu). In the blog I wrote in 2005, I mentioned the importance of moving the Agriculture Labor (majority) force into Industry and Services. Finally, after two decades, Amitabh Kant (former CEO of Niti Aayog and India's G20 Sherpa in 2023) echoed the same sentiment, and that's a good sign.
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